In 2010, we’ll experience a false bottom to the economic recovery. It will be jarring and on the whole, 2010 will feel pretty similar to 2009.
As the economy begins to recover and employment mobility returns, organizations that have been practicing cram-down HR—forcing people to conform to corporate’s plans rather than leveraging corporate to support people—as well as organizations that have ignored talent development, created opaque decision-making processes, or allowed their legal departments to write HR’s notices will watch their best talent stream out the door.
Meanwhile, organizations who have been treating their people like grown-ups—that is, organizations that realize that the way in which something is said often has a significantly greater impact than what gets said, and put energy and focus into getting the communications/human element aspect of their business right—will see their futures brighten even in the face of a tough economic climate.
This should result in a widening gap between the average place to work and the best place to work… and let’s not even talk about the bad places to work.
Left to play out on its own, this trend will see the best talent continuing to concentrate in top employers. Entrepreneurial organizations may compete for top talent in the short-run as well, but I think younger workers’ need for (1) structure and (2) insurance will move them back into big companies before long.
Within those top companies, strong talent will spread out across the disciplines. I see finance’s star waning as individuals get comfortable doing more with less and begin to recalibrate their material needs. I see HR’s star rising, which is good. HR will especially draw talent from marketing departments as internal and external corporate messaging gets fused. With more strong talent in HR function, more companies will be able to move beyond policy-driven, one-size-fits-all talent practices. We’ll see flexible, individually-focused development programs gain more acceptance and show success.
Of course, with every action comes a reaction, and here, the reaction is likely to be C-players clamoring for “me-too” benefits like they see A-companies providing, as they wonder why their own jobs are getting more menial while their counterparts at well-run companies enjoy more flexibility than ever before. These two forces won’t quite cancel themselves out. Either C-companies will be forced to shape up, A-companies will have to pull back, or—most likely—a little of both.
On the whole in 2010, we’ll see continued, “localized,” economic pain as chronically-challenged industries struggle to change. Localized is in quotes because of the spillover effects that occur when industries lurch. (I seriously doubt the banking shakeout is over.) We may also see more government involvement in business if the case is made that companies took advantage of workers during the downturn. I don’t think the worst-case scenario of EFCA will occur thanks to the public’s reaction to the health care debate.
Still, with the US facing unsustainable debt obligations, and with our onerous restrictions on immigration, I think for both professional and personal reasons, we’ll begin to see—on the margins—the expatriation of American talent.
Hopefully, I’ll have a cheerier outlook for 2011…
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